Chapter Content
Okay, so, like, let's talk about this whole uncertainty thing, right? It's kind of a paradox, actually. As Blaise Pascal, you know, the famous philosopher, said, "It's not certain that everything is uncertain." And that really hits home when you think about how technology's changed everything.
Think about it. Software's kinda taken over, right? From, like, your toothbrush to your car, and even operating rooms. And the thing is, it's replaced things we used to, like, actually *control* with stuff we can only *influence*.
Like, remember those old VWs? If something went wrong, you could pop the hood and probably figure it out. But now, if my car just decides to, I don’t know, stop working in the middle of the road, I'm totally lost. I gotta take it to a mechanic to fix the *software*. I can tell it to go and stop and turn, but, like, I don't *control* it. Same goes for my toothbrush and even my doorbell. I can't take them apart and fix them myself. It's all software.
We can't control what we don't understand, right? And honestly, most of us, myself included, don’t have a clue about those algorithms that stop my car from crashing or that send notifications to my phone when someone's at the door.
So, control's slowly being replaced by influence. And that makes the world feel, like, more and more uncertain, you know? It's kind of like this snake eating its own tail, this whole uncertainty-technology relationship. We hate uncertainty, so we try to get rid of it, and that drives progress. But then the technology that comes out of that progress creates new kinds of uncertainty. Some of the uncertainties we got rid of actually made us stronger, because we got used to dealing with them. But the new ones, these tech-created uncertainties? They can make us weaker, because we just don't know how to deal with them.
And it's not just in our everyday lives, either. Think about the financial world. If you walked onto a trading floor today, you might not even recognize it. No screaming, no phones glued to ears, nothing. It's because algorithms do all the trading now. They're faster, and they don't make human errors. But they also, like, change the game in a way that's too much for us to handle.
Algorithms can trade at the fifth decimal point. I mean, at that level, it's basically just noise. And the speed they trade at? It’s just... too much. Technology removes uncertainty in some ways, but it also introduces it in others, and often amplifies it. Some researchers pointed out that it "decreased uncertainty on the microlevel and increased uncertainty on the macrolevel."
So, what do we do about it? Well, some historians say that Angkor, this ancient city, became huge because they were really good at, like, taming uncertainty. They built this massive water management system that guaranteed water for a million people, even when the monsoon rains were bad.
But here's the kicker: that same system might have also been their downfall. It was so efficient that it got rid of all the extra, you know, all the backup systems. So, when the rain patterns changed, the system couldn't handle it. And because they'd gotten so used to having plenty of water, they'd forgotten what it was like to deal with a shortage. They weren't prepared, and the city collapsed. By trying to eliminate uncertainty, they forgot it existed.
That's the key, right? If we get rid of all uncertainty, we forget how to handle it. It's like swimming in a small pool – you won’t be ready for the ocean. You need to experience it. So, maybe we need to, like, deliberately introduce a little chaos into things to make them more resilient.
That's exactly what some engineers at Netflix did. They created this tool called "Chaos Monkey," which, get this, would randomly break things in their data center. The idea was that if they could deal with these failures in a controlled environment, they'd be ready for anything.
They said it was like getting a flat tire. If you only change your tire when you have to, you might have a tough time doing it on the side of the road. So, you should practice on a Sunday afternoon. By running Chaos Monkey, they learned about the weaknesses in their system and could build ways to fix them automatically. So, when something failed at 3 a.m. on a Sunday, they wouldn't even notice.
And it's not just about making the system stronger. It also gives you peace of mind. You feel more secure knowing you're prepared for the worst. And if the worst actually happens, you don't panic because you already know what to do.
There’s a guy, BB, who manages a team at a big company. They were using AI to fix errors in a service, and it worked great. No more errors! But then one day, the system crashed, and the team was totally unprepared. They'd forgotten how to fix the code. So, BB started intentionally breaking the service on a regular basis. A kind of "fire drill," you know? So the team would be ready for anything.
The thing is, we never really know what the *real* worst-case scenario is. We only know the worst-case scenario *so far*. You can't prepare for the future by just practicing for one specific kind of disaster. You need to train yourself to react effectively, no matter what happens. And one way to do that is to expose yourself to some volatility, in a safe way, of course.
Our discomfort with uncertainty can also mess with our minds. Worry and anxiety take up our mental energy and mess with our rational thinking. That's why places with a lot of uncertainty often have a lot of rules. Like the military, right? They have a very strict hierarchy and strong expectations for personal discipline. Polishing your boots perfectly won't stop you from stepping on a landmine, but it gives you the *illusion* of control, psychologically.
So, how do we cope with all this uncertainty? Well, there are a couple of ways. One is training self-control. If you can stay calm when things get uncertain, you'll experience less stress. I actually talked about this in my book, *Stress Proof*.
Think about wingsuit BASE jumping, which some people call the "most lethal sport on earth." These people are flying at, like, 140 miles an hour in these suits. And one tiny mistake can be fatal. One of the best wingsuit BASE jumpers, Jeb Corliss, said that he got into it because he wanted to conquer his fear.
He started with snakes, when he was like six years old. He was terrified of them, so he started forcing himself to be around them, to control his emotional response. He started with small snakes and then worked his way up to bigger ones. He did the same thing with BASE jumping, starting small and then gradually increasing the danger. He was just as scared as anyone else would have been, but his self-regulation training had helped him stay calm.
The Navy SEALs do the same thing. They repeatedly expose trainees to terrifying situations so they can learn to manage their reactions. One example is an underwater pool test where they have to stay underwater for twenty minutes while an instructor tries to mess with their breathing equipment. The recruits practice keeping their focus, so they don’t panic.
Researchers interviewed some elite athletes and their trainers, and they found that a lot of their training focused on self-control. Things like imagining every terrible scenario, experiencing increasing levels of mental pressure, and deliberately exposing themselves to obstacles.
Unfortunately, most workplaces don't offer opportunities to train self-control. So, you're better off doing it outside of work, maybe through a hobby, like yoga or tightrope walking.
The other way to cope with uncertainty is through rituals. Superstitions and rituals can make us feel like we have more control, which helps reduce anxiety. People in jobs with a lot of risk, like miners or pilots or athletes, are often very superstitious.
A superstition is just a belief that certain things are caused by forces outside your control. If you don't believe in superstitions, you have to carry all the weight of uncertainty yourself. But if you do, you can delegate some of that weight to these unseen forces.
When you worry about something, your brain tries to figure out why it happened or how to prevent it. But if you convince yourself that it's completely out of your hands, your brain will stop trying to control it. The end result is that it takes your attention off it. So, you're less distracted, you sleep better, and you perform better.
If you're not superstitious, you can still use rituals. Like Rafael Nadal, the tennis player, he had this twelve-step ritual he would do before every serve. Things like cleaning the baseline with his foot, adjusting his shirt, touching his nose and hair. The consistency of doing the same things every time gives you a sense of control. You don't have to believe it will magically make you better. It's about doing the same actions, not the actions themselves. So, if you’re giving a speech, make sure that you get into the habit of performing rituals beforehand. It will reduce pressure.